Market Prediction for 11/01/2023

 Today's prediction was wrong. The market was up by 0.65%.

Let's focus on tomorrow(11/01/2023)

+ve(up) reasoning:

1. May be there is a Santa Claus rally

-ve(down) reasoning:

1. S&P futures are down ES00 | E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch
2. DOW futures are down - YM00 | E-Mini Dow Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch
3. geo-political situation

unknown:

1. FED chairman talk
2. Companies earnings

Sticking with the direction of futures, the market will be down tomorrow(11/01/2023).

THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE. JUST MY ANALYSIS FOR FUN AND MY LEARNINGS.

Stock Market(S&P500) predictions for 10/31/2023

 Today's market prediction was correct and the S&P500 is up 1.20%.

Let's try to reason the market for tomorrow.

+ve(up) reasoning:

1. Might be its oversold last week.
2. Santa Claus rally may be going to start.

-ve(down) reasoning:

1. S&P futures are down ES00 | E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch
2. Dow futures are down slightly YM00 | E-Mini Dow Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch
3. WTI Crude is up 0.46% Crude Oil Price Today | WTI OIL PRICE CHART | OIL PRICE PER BARREL | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)
4. Geo-political situation and interest is high.

Unknown: 

1. Consumer confidence is going to come tomorrow.
2. earning for companies Samsung,Pfizer,AMD etc. tomorrow.

I am planning to stick with numbers. Since oil price is up and futures are down, prediction for tomorrow (10/31/2023) is that S&P500 is going to be -ve.

This is not a financial advice. This is just for my fun and my analysis.

Market prediction for 10/30/2023

Following are the reasoning for tomorrow's predictions.

+ve(up) case:

• S&P500 futures are up 0.37% ES00 | E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch
• DOW futures are up 0.27% Dow Jones 30 Industrial | Index Futures | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)
• WTI oil price down 0.89% - Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
• May be oversold last week

-ve(down) case:

• We have FED chairman conference on Wednesday.
• Geo-political situation

Unknown: Earning reports from McDonalds,HSBC etc.

I know that the Marco view on the market is still gloomy, having said that would like to stick with the futures direction indicators. So, predicting the market S&P500 will be up (10/30/2023).

THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE.ITs JUST MY ANALYSIS AND DOING IT FOR FUN.

Weekly predictions review (10/23/2023 - 10/27/2023)

Yesterday's (10/27/2023) Market prediction was correct and S&P500 was down by 0.48%.

Weekly Analysis on predictions

Date	Predictions Correct
10/23/2023	No
10/24/2023	No
10/25/2023	Yes
10/26/2023	Yes
10/27/2023	Yes

With that said, the S&P500 was 0.48% this week.

Summary:

As per my analysis, the major reasons for mark down this week are the oil price is high, geopolitical and interest rate high.

THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE.ABOVE ANALYSIS IS MY VIEW OF THE MARKET.

Market predictions for 10/27/2023 ( S&P500 )

 Today's prediction was correct, and market is down by 1.18% INX 4,137.23 -49.54 -1.18% : S&P 500 - MSN Money

Let's focus on tomorrow's prediction.

+ve(up) reasoning:

• Market is oversold.
• S&P500 futures are up: ES00 | E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch.Up by 0.48%
• DOW futures are up by 0.24% - YM00 | E-Mini Dow Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch.
• There may be a Santa Claus rally.

-ve(down) reasoning:

• Oil price is up - Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
• Geo-political situation
• U.S. GDP grew at a 4.9% annual pace in the third quarter, better than expected (cnbc.com) (FED might go for one more hike) - Good news is bad news sometimes.
• Weekend selling.

Unknown: 

1. PCE index, Personal income nominal reports tomorrow.
2. Chevron,Exxon etc. company's earnings report tomorrow.

I am tempted to go with futures direction today. As tomorrow is Friday and oil price being up, I am predicting that market will be down tomorrow (10/27/2023).

THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE. JUST MY PREDICTION FOR MY ANALYSIS.

Market - S&P500 prediction for 10/26/2023

 Today's prediction was correct and S&P500 was down today by 1.43%.

Let's focus on tomorrow,

+ve(up) reasoning:

1. WTI oil price is down by 0.20% Crude Oil Price Today | WTI OIL PRICE CHART | OIL PRICE PER BARREL | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)
2. Santa Claus rally is there or not ! 
3. Next year US election and Olympics

-ve(Down) reasoning:

1. S&P500 futures are down by 0.56% ES00 | E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch
2. DOW futures down by 0.19% YM00 | E-Mini Dow Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch
3. Geo-political situation
4. Interest rates higher for longer (Marco view)

Unknown:  

1. GDP, Initial Jobless claims reports are coming tomorrow.
2. Amazon,Mastercard,intel,comcast etc. companies reporting earning.

With above reasoning, am planning to stick with futures direction and predicting that tomorrow (10/26/2023) market (S&P 500) will be down.

S&P500 prediction for 10/25/2023

My today's prediction was wrong for S&P500 and it was UP by 0.73%.

Let's focus on tomorrow,

+ve(UP) reasoning:

1. Oil price down 0.13%.
2. Santa Claus rally.

-ve(DOWN) reasoning:

1. S&P500 futures is down.
2. DOW futures down by 0.06%.
3. Macro market view

Unknown: Meta,T-Mobile,Servicenow etc. companies reporting earnings tomorrow.

I am sticking with futures direction and my prediction for tomorrow (10/25/2023) is -ve day.

Market Prediction for 10/24/2023

 I was wrong in the prediction for today 10/23/2023. Even the market was UP in the first half, the second half was not good and S&P500 closed negative. 

Take aways: Seems like Oil price was again up today, and seems like macro, geopolitical situation has more weightage.

Let's focus on tomorrow,

+ve (UP) reasoning:

1.   Market might have oversold.
2.   S&P500 Futures are UP 0.09% right now . ES00 | E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch
3. DOW futures are UP 0.02% YM00 | E-Mini Dow Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch

-ve(DOWN) reasoning:

1. WTI Crude oil price is UP Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
2. Geo-political situation
3. Interest is going to high for longer (analyst's expectations) -Macro look.

Unknown: 

1. There are lot of companies earning report is going to come tomorrow - Google, Microsoft, Coca-Cola, CP, VICI etc. Not sure how that is going to be.
2. PMI comes tomorrow.

Since oil price are UP and macro look on the environment is still gloomy. I would guess market is going to down tomorrow (10/24/2023).

This is not a financial advice. This is just for my fun and analysis.

Market prediction S&P500 for 10/23/2023

 Let's us start reasoning for tomorrow's market.

+ve(UP) cases:

1. WTI Oil price is down today 0.95% and price is at 87.24$. Crude Oil Price Today | WTI OIL PRICE CHART | OIL PRICE PER BARREL | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)
2. Mini-S&P500 futures is up by 0.20% and DOW futures are up by 0.14%.
3. May be last week, its oversold. Tomorow can market start of the new week with some optimism?
4. May be Santa Claus rally still possible?

-ve(DOWN) cases:

1. Geo-political situation
2. Marco looks on the market.

Unknown: Some earning reports from companies like UniCredit, Saudi Basic Industries etc.

Based on the oil price and futures, predicting tomorrow will be positive day for S&P500.

This is not a financial advice. I am doing it for fun and my analysis.

This week predictions

Weekly predictions ( 10/17/2023 - 10/20/2023)

Today's prediction was correct, nothing intellectually done, just stick with the basics data.

Date	Predictions Correct
10/16/2023	Yes
10/17/2023	No
10/18/2023	Yes
10/19/2023	No
10/20/2023	Yes

S&P500 today:

S&P500 weekly chart

S&P 500 prediction for Oct/20/2023

 Unfortunately, my prediction for today was wrong. The market is down today by 0.85%

I think that I was more optimistic considering the overall macro situation and downward trends. I should have taken more conservative/realistic approach.

What went wrong with respect to prediction.

• Jobless claims at nine months low.
• Chairman Powell speech did not help.
• WTI oil went up.
• Futures went down today morning.
• 10-year yield went up.

Let's focus on tomorrow,

+ve(UP) reasoning:

1. May be oversold this week?
2. Will there be any Santa Claus rally?

-ve(DOWN) reasoning:

1. Weekend selling.
2. WTI oil price is UP.
3. Mini S&P500 futures down and DOW futures also down.
4. Geo-political situation.

Unknown: Powell's statements were hawkish or dovish!! 

Considering the above factors, am sticking the basics and predicting market will be down tomorrow (10/20/2023)

        

THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE.

S&P500 prediction for 10/19/2023

 My last day prediction was correct. The S&P500 is down today.

Let's focus on tomorrow,

+ve(UP) reasoning:

1. S&P futures (Mini) is up by 0.052% and DOW futures is up by 0.018%
2. WTI crude oil price down by 0.25%
3. S&P500 is down by 1.34%. is it over sold?
4. Will there be Santa Claus rally?
5. Netflix is up by 12.51% after hours.

-ve(Down) reasoning:

1. Initial jobless claims number will come tomorrow. If it's not as expected, then might be a sell off.
2. Fed Chairman speech. Will he hawkish?
3. Geo-political situation.
4. Tesla is down after hours after its earnings report release.

Unknown: Some companies earning report tomorrow AT&T,Union Pacific Corp etc 

I am planning to stick with technical, since oil price down and futures shows an up sign, Let's hope tomorrow (10/19/2023) is going to be positive. ( this is a tough call, let's see)

THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE. JUST MY ANALYSIS AND GUESSES.

S&P500 price prediction for 10/18/2023

 Unfortunately, I was slightly wrong on prediction, the S&P500 is down 0.01% today.

Seems like Bank of America and Johnson&Johnson beats their earnings. But overall S&P500 is down.

Let's focus on tomorrow, reasoning for the UP and DOWN

+ve (UP) reasoning

• Today seems like in second half market want to recover.
• Historically 4th quarter expects a Santa Claus rally. 

-ve(DOWN) reasoning:

• WTI oil price up by 2.02%
• S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURES down 0.31%
• DOW JONES E-MINI FUTURES down by 0.22%
• Geopolitical situation

Unkown: Earning from Tesla, Morgan Stanley, Netflix etc. this can be good. These specific stocks can go UP or DOWN based on the earning! But not sure!!!

This time I decided to stick with fundamentals, since oil price is up and futures are down, I predict that tomorrow (10/18/2023) the market(S&P500) will be down.

THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE

Premarket - S&P 500 prediction for 10/17/2023

As I guessed 10/16/2026 prediction was correct and S&P 500 was up for 1.06%.

Let's talk about tomorrow's market -

+ve cases:

1. S&P futures are up 0.040% and DOW futures are up 0.050%
2. Seems like todays earning reports were good - SCHW - SCHW 53.72 +2.39 +4.66% : Charles Schwab Corp - MSN Money

- ve cases:

     1. WTI oil price is 0.10% up

     2. Geo political situation 

     3. Fed presidents talks

    

Unknown: Earning reports from companies tomorrow - https://markets.businessinsider.com/earnings-calendar

This prediction is going to very tough. But since its might be a start of Santa Claus rally and tomorrow earnings might not be that bad, I would guess a +ve day tomorrow.

This is not a financial advise. Just my thoughts and notes from analysis.

 

premarket - S&P500 prediction for tomorrow

 I am trying to predict the S&P 500 direction tomorrow(10/16/2023)

     I hope the market will a bit positive tomorrow . Reasoning 

                

• WTI oil price seems negative on 10/15/2023
• S&P500 futures are up -  0.24% and DOW futures up 0.20%
• I don't see much market calendar news  - except Philadelphia Fed president talk. I don't know he goes hawkish !!

    

Some of the things can go wrong and affect the market negatively tomorrow

• Geo-political news ( Israel vs Palestine )
• Some of the financial institution reporting earning -  Not sure that's going to be negative . JP Morgan was  +ve and still stock was down Friday .

I still predict a  +ve day on tomorrow (10/15/2023)

Let's see what happens tomorrow . Note : this is not a financial advise. This is just my notes and analysis

FED predictions on fund rate

 

CPI numbers - 12-oct-2023

 

WTI oil price oct-12-2023

Morning and evening after brushing your teeth, watch oil price. That will gave you where market is going ..

Sp500 futures- Oct-11-2023

 

Can I predict the S&P500 have atleast a positive start? It might swing based on CPI tomorrow though.. but can not expect much high even we see a +ve day based on the macro environment. 

This is not a financial advise. Just am noting down my observations for a future fall back. :-)

Jp morgan CPI forcast for oct-12-2023

 

Futures are going up on 09-oct-2023

 Seems like futures are up today. Lets see whether tomorrow's stock go up ?

WTI oil price on Oct-09-2023

 Oil price is ticking up and right now WTI crude is 86.27$

S&P500 is down oct-09

 s&p500 seems like is going down today morning

Futures currently going down 8-oct-2023

Premark watch

E-mini s&p500 futures - 4310.50$

E-mini DOW industrial futures - 33409.00$

Seems like its going down

Consumer credit report released on Oct-06-2023

 Enjoy reading consumer credit report released yesterday

Federal Reserve Board - Consumer Credit - G.19

Jobs report on Oct-06-2023

 Yesterday released US jobs report - Employment Situation News Release - 2023 M09 Results (bls.gov)

Jobless claims are less than expected 10/05/2023

Even though the jobless cames less than expected https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/10/05/weekly-jobless-claims-sept-30-2023-.html

FED can decide whatever they want still..

WTI crude is up on 10/05/2023

 WTI crude is up today and touched 82.90$ 

Heavy red day with WTI green

 Stock market is with another red day, but WTI is green

S&P500 futures and DOW futures down - premarket 03-Oct-2023

 Let us see what happens for s&p500 and dow today 

What is the reason for the mega tech stock today oct 02 2023

 I don't see any fundamental reason for mega cap stocks to go up today. May be market is expecting the 4th quarter rally! 

E-mini Dow futures jumped 100$ +

 E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Futures jumped 100$+

and standing now at 33840$

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/YMW00:CBOT?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjp-ann9dWBAxUXl2oFHaR2AosQ3ecFegQIDBAb

Futures are down 0.19% on Oct 1 2023

E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures down 0.19% today. What that means for tomorrows stock market?

Let us watch tomorrow..