Market - S&P500 prediction for 10/26/2023

 Today's prediction was correct and S&P500 was down today by 1.43%.

Let's focus on tomorrow,

+ve(up) reasoning:

1. WTI oil price is down by 0.20% Crude Oil Price Today | WTI OIL PRICE CHART | OIL PRICE PER BARREL | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)
2. Santa Claus rally is there or not ! 
3. Next year US election and Olympics

-ve(Down) reasoning:

1. S&P500 futures are down by 0.56% ES00 | E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch
2. DOW futures down by 0.19% YM00 | E-Mini Dow Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch
3. Geo-political situation
4. Interest rates higher for longer (Marco view)

Unknown:  

1. GDP, Initial Jobless claims reports are coming tomorrow.
2. Amazon,Mastercard,intel,comcast etc. companies reporting earning.

With above reasoning, am planning to stick with futures direction and predicting that tomorrow (10/26/2023) market (S&P 500) will be down.

S&P500 prediction for 10/25/2023

My today's prediction was wrong for S&P500 and it was UP by 0.73%.

Let's focus on tomorrow,

+ve(UP) reasoning:

1. Oil price down 0.13%.
2. Santa Claus rally.

-ve(DOWN) reasoning:

1. S&P500 futures is down.
2. DOW futures down by 0.06%.
3. Macro market view

Unknown: Meta,T-Mobile,Servicenow etc. companies reporting earnings tomorrow.

I am sticking with futures direction and my prediction for tomorrow (10/25/2023) is -ve day.

Market Prediction for 10/24/2023

 I was wrong in the prediction for today 10/23/2023. Even the market was UP in the first half, the second half was not good and S&P500 closed negative. 

Take aways: Seems like Oil price was again up today, and seems like macro, geopolitical situation has more weightage.

Let's focus on tomorrow,

+ve (UP) reasoning:

1.   Market might have oversold.
2.   S&P500 Futures are UP 0.09% right now . ES00 | E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch
3. DOW futures are UP 0.02% YM00 | E-Mini Dow Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch

-ve(DOWN) reasoning:

1. WTI Crude oil price is UP Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
2. Geo-political situation
3. Interest is going to high for longer (analyst's expectations) -Macro look.

Unknown: 

1. There are lot of companies earning report is going to come tomorrow - Google, Microsoft, Coca-Cola, CP, VICI etc. Not sure how that is going to be.
2. PMI comes tomorrow.

Since oil price are UP and macro look on the environment is still gloomy. I would guess market is going to down tomorrow (10/24/2023).

This is not a financial advice. This is just for my fun and analysis.

Market prediction S&P500 for 10/23/2023

 Let's us start reasoning for tomorrow's market.

+ve(UP) cases:

1. WTI Oil price is down today 0.95% and price is at 87.24$. Crude Oil Price Today | WTI OIL PRICE CHART | OIL PRICE PER BARREL | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)
2. Mini-S&P500 futures is up by 0.20% and DOW futures are up by 0.14%.
3. May be last week, its oversold. Tomorow can market start of the new week with some optimism?
4. May be Santa Claus rally still possible?

-ve(DOWN) cases:

1. Geo-political situation
2. Marco looks on the market.

Unknown: Some earning reports from companies like UniCredit, Saudi Basic Industries etc.

Based on the oil price and futures, predicting tomorrow will be positive day for S&P500.

This is not a financial advice. I am doing it for fun and my analysis.

This week predictions

Weekly predictions ( 10/17/2023 - 10/20/2023)

Today's prediction was correct, nothing intellectually done, just stick with the basics data.

Date	Predictions Correct
10/16/2023	Yes
10/17/2023	No
10/18/2023	Yes
10/19/2023	No
10/20/2023	Yes

S&P500 today:

S&P500 weekly chart

S&P 500 prediction for Oct/20/2023

 Unfortunately, my prediction for today was wrong. The market is down today by 0.85%

I think that I was more optimistic considering the overall macro situation and downward trends. I should have taken more conservative/realistic approach.

What went wrong with respect to prediction.

• Jobless claims at nine months low.
• Chairman Powell speech did not help.
• WTI oil went up.
• Futures went down today morning.
• 10-year yield went up.

Let's focus on tomorrow,

+ve(UP) reasoning:

1. May be oversold this week?
2. Will there be any Santa Claus rally?

-ve(DOWN) reasoning:

1. Weekend selling.
2. WTI oil price is UP.
3. Mini S&P500 futures down and DOW futures also down.
4. Geo-political situation.

Unknown: Powell's statements were hawkish or dovish!! 

Considering the above factors, am sticking the basics and predicting market will be down tomorrow (10/20/2023)

        

THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE.

S&P500 prediction for 10/19/2023

 My last day prediction was correct. The S&P500 is down today.

Let's focus on tomorrow,

+ve(UP) reasoning:

1. S&P futures (Mini) is up by 0.052% and DOW futures is up by 0.018%
2. WTI crude oil price down by 0.25%
3. S&P500 is down by 1.34%. is it over sold?
4. Will there be Santa Claus rally?
5. Netflix is up by 12.51% after hours.

-ve(Down) reasoning:

1. Initial jobless claims number will come tomorrow. If it's not as expected, then might be a sell off.
2. Fed Chairman speech. Will he hawkish?
3. Geo-political situation.
4. Tesla is down after hours after its earnings report release.

Unknown: Some companies earning report tomorrow AT&T,Union Pacific Corp etc 

I am planning to stick with technical, since oil price down and futures shows an up sign, Let's hope tomorrow (10/19/2023) is going to be positive. ( this is a tough call, let's see)

THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE. JUST MY ANALYSIS AND GUESSES.