S&P500 price prediction for 10/18/2023

 Unfortunately, I was slightly wrong on prediction, the S&P500 is down 0.01% today.

Seems like Bank of America and Johnson&Johnson beats their earnings. But overall S&P500 is down.

Let's focus on tomorrow, reasoning for the UP and DOWN

+ve (UP) reasoning

• Today seems like in second half market want to recover.
• Historically 4th quarter expects a Santa Claus rally. 

-ve(DOWN) reasoning:

• WTI oil price up by 2.02%
• S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURES down 0.31%
• DOW JONES E-MINI FUTURES down by 0.22%
• Geopolitical situation

Unkown: Earning from Tesla, Morgan Stanley, Netflix etc. this can be good. These specific stocks can go UP or DOWN based on the earning! But not sure!!!

This time I decided to stick with fundamentals, since oil price is up and futures are down, I predict that tomorrow (10/18/2023) the market(S&P500) will be down.

THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE

Premarket - S&P 500 prediction for 10/17/2023

As I guessed 10/16/2026 prediction was correct and S&P 500 was up for 1.06%.

Let's talk about tomorrow's market -

+ve cases:

1. S&P futures are up 0.040% and DOW futures are up 0.050%
2. Seems like todays earning reports were good - SCHW - SCHW 53.72 +2.39 +4.66% : Charles Schwab Corp - MSN Money

- ve cases:

     1. WTI oil price is 0.10% up

     2. Geo political situation 

     3. Fed presidents talks

    

Unknown: Earning reports from companies tomorrow - https://markets.businessinsider.com/earnings-calendar

This prediction is going to very tough. But since its might be a start of Santa Claus rally and tomorrow earnings might not be that bad, I would guess a +ve day tomorrow.

This is not a financial advise. Just my thoughts and notes from analysis.

 

premarket - S&P500 prediction for tomorrow

 I am trying to predict the S&P 500 direction tomorrow(10/16/2023)

     I hope the market will a bit positive tomorrow . Reasoning 

                

• WTI oil price seems negative on 10/15/2023
• S&P500 futures are up -  0.24% and DOW futures up 0.20%
• I don't see much market calendar news  - except Philadelphia Fed president talk. I don't know he goes hawkish !!

    

Some of the things can go wrong and affect the market negatively tomorrow

• Geo-political news ( Israel vs Palestine )
• Some of the financial institution reporting earning -  Not sure that's going to be negative . JP Morgan was  +ve and still stock was down Friday .

I still predict a  +ve day on tomorrow (10/15/2023)

Let's see what happens tomorrow . Note : this is not a financial advise. This is just my notes and analysis

FED predictions on fund rate

 

CPI numbers - 12-oct-2023

 

WTI oil price oct-12-2023

Morning and evening after brushing your teeth, watch oil price. That will gave you where market is going ..

Sp500 futures- Oct-11-2023

 

Can I predict the S&P500 have atleast a positive start? It might swing based on CPI tomorrow though.. but can not expect much high even we see a +ve day based on the macro environment. 

This is not a financial advise. Just am noting down my observations for a future fall back. :-)