Market Prediction for 11/09/2023

 Market for 11/08/2023 is UP by 0.1% and prediction is just correct INX 4,382.78 +4.40 +0.10% : S&P 500 - MSN Money 

Let's focus on tomorrow's prediction:

+ve(UP) reasoning:

1. Santa Claus Rally, may be?
2. Dow futures are up - DWCF | Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index Overview | MarketWatch

-ve(DOWN) reasoning:

1. S&P futures are down - S&P 500 E-Mini | Index Futures | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)
2. Interest rate is high.
3. Marco view and geo-political situation.
4. Oil price is slightly up - Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com

Looking at the S&P future and oil price, am predicting that market will be down tomorrow (11/09/2023).

Market prediction for 11/08/2023

 S&P500 was up today, and my prediction was correct - INX 4,378.38 +12.40 +0.28% : S&P 500 - MSN Money

Let's focus on tomorrow's prediction.

+ve(UP) reasoning:

1. Oil price is down - WTI crude - Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
2. Santa Claus rally

-ve(Down) reasoning:

1. S&P futures are slightly down - ES00 | E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch
2. DOW futures also slightly down - Dow Jones 30 Industrial | Index Futures | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)
3. Geo-political and macro view on the world.

Unknown: 

1. FED chairman opening remarks.
2. Some companies earning tomorrow - Company Earnings Calendar - Yahoo Finance

Very hard to predict day when FED chairman speak. But still oil price is going down, I guess that market will be +ve tomorrow (11/08/2023).

THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE. THIS IS JUST FOR MY ANALYSIS.

Market Prediction for 11/07/2023

Today stock market (S&P500) was just +ve as predicted. S&P500 was up 0.18%.

Let's focus on tomorrow.

+ve(up) reasoning:

1. S&P futures are up 0.13% now - S&P 500 E-Mini | Index Futures | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)
2. oil price is down - WTI CRUDE is down by 0.43%.
3. 10-year yield slightly down - US10Y: 4.643% -0.019 (0.00%) (cnbc.com)

-ve(DOWN) reasoning:

1. DOW futures are down - Dow Jones 30 Industrial | Index Futures | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)
2. Geo-political situation

Unknown:

1. Some companies earnings.
2. Consumer credit coming.
3. FED members speech.

With these observations, I am guessing tomorrow (11/07/2023) will be +ve.

Market prediction for 11/06/2023

 Let's predict tomorrow's  S&P500.

+ve(UP) reasoning:

1. S&P futures are up by 1.00% S&P 500 E-Mini | Index Futures | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)
2. Start of the week and a Santa Claus rally would be there.

-ve(Down) reasoning:

1. DOW futures are down a little - Dow Jones 30 Industrial | Index Futures | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)
2. Oil price is up - Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
3. Geo-political situation.

Unknown: 

1. Fed Gov. Cook speaks. Not sure whether he will be hawkish.
2. Some companies are reporting their earnings.

This is tough call. I am planning to stick with S&P futures direction and hopefully start of the week would be nice. So, predicting the market will be +ve tomorrow.

This is not a financial advice. Just for my analysis.

Market S&P500 - this week review

 

Yesterday's prediction was wrong. The S&P500 was actually up by 0.94%

Date	Predictions Correct
10/30/2023	Yes
10/31/2023	No
11/01/2023	No
11/02/2023	Yes
11/03/2023	No

Last week there was 4.85% increase in the S&P500 value

Summary: Seems like market was looking for a Santa Claus rally. Not sure how strong and how real that would be!!

Market prediction(S&P500) for 11/03/2023

 Today's prediction was correct. The S&P500 is up by 1.89%.

Let's try to predict tomorrow's market.

+ve(up) reasoning:

1. FED skipped the rate hike. 
2. Santa Claus rally for year end

-ve(down) reasoning:

1. S&P500 futures down by 0.15% ES00 | E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch
2. DOW futures down by 0.01% YM00 | E-Mini Dow Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch
3. Friday selling
4. APPL down by   3.39%  AAPL 177.57 +3.60 +2.07% : Apple Inc - MSN Money
5. Geo-political situation
6. WTI oil price up by 0.11%

Looking at the reasoning, oil price is up, and futures are down, I am sticking with futures direction. The prediction is that the market will be -ve tomorrow (11/03/2023).

 

THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE.JUST MY ANALYSIS

Market Prediction for 11/02/2023

 Today's market prediction(11/01/2023) was wrong. The S&P500 is up by 1.05%.

Let's focus on tomorrow.

+ve(up) reasoning:

1. S&P500 futures are up by 0.26% ES00 | E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch
2. DOW futures are up by 0.07% YM00 | E-Mini Dow Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch
3. FED skipped the interest rate hike.

-ve(down) reasoning:

1. oil price is up.
2. geo-political situation

Unknown: 

1. initial jobless claims, US productivity reports
2. Earning reports for Apple, Eli Lilly, Starbucks etc.

planning to stick with futures direction and predicting tomorrow will be +ve day (11/02/2023).

This is not a financial advice. Just for my analysis.