Market prediction for Nov-30-2023

 Today's prediction was wrong. S&P500 was down by 0.095%

Tomorrow's prediction:

As s&p futures are up https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ESW00:CME_EMINIS?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwilgvOl_eqCAxXZMDQIHUQ2D-8Q3ecFegQIDBAb and

Dow futures are up https://www.google.com/finance/quote/YMW00:CBOT?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjIqcTw_eqCAxX-ADQIHZptAPAQ3ecFegQICxAb

Oil price is slightly up which is negative for market/inflation. 

I am planning to stick with futures direction and predicting that s&p500 will be up tomorrow 

Market prediction Nov 29 2023

 Today's prediction was correct and the s&p500 was up by 0 098%

Let predict tomorrow's market:

• + ve case reasoning:

1.s&p futures are up

2.dow futures are up

3.Santa Claus rally?

-ve case reasoning:

1. Oil price is up by 0.12%

2.Geo political situation 

3 marco view- higher for longer

Unknown:

• GDP revision will come tomorrow 
• Some FED presidents speech 

Sticking with futures direction as DOW futures shows some good +ve percent up

I am predicting that tomorrow's market s&p500 will be +ve

Market prediction for 28-nov-2023

Prediction for Today's s&p500 was correct and s&p500 was down.

Let's focus on tomorrow 

+ve(UP) case reasoning:

1. S&P futures are up.

2.DOW futures are up.

-ve (Down) case reasoning:

1. Oil price is going up

2. Geopolitical 

3. Macro view and higher for longer interest rate theme.

Unknown:

• Consumer confidence will come tomorrow 
• FED person speaks 
• Some banks and crowdstrike earning reports tomorrow 

Predicting tomorrow will be up as futures indicates.

Market prediction for Nov-27 2023

 As oil price is up and s&p futures , dow futures are down, I am predicting tomorrow s&p500 will be down. 

But its start of the week, so things might change, but i am sticking with the future values.

Market prediction for 24-Nov-2023

 Today's prediction was correct and s&p500 is up 0.41%.

Let's predict tomorrow's market

+ve case:

1.oil price is going down 

2. 4 day pause on the Isreal war.

3.s&p futures are up

4.dow futures are up

-ve case:

1.weekend selling

Chaniging the prediction  Predicting market s&p500  will be + ve on friday.

Market prediction for tomorrow 22-Nov-2023

 Today's prediction was wrong and the s&p500 was down by 0.20%

Let's predict tomorrow's S&P500

1. Oil price is down

2.S&P futures are down now

3.Dow futures are up now

Since oil price is down ans Dow futures are up, I am predicting tomorrow will be +ve day for s&p500

Market prediction for Nov 21-2023

 Today's prediction was wrong and s&p500 was up today.

Lets predict tomorrow market

1. S&P futures are up

2. Dow futures are up

3.oil price is up, it might -ve impacts 

4.unknown - fomc meeting

Predicting based on futures direction that the market will be up.

Market s&p500 prediction for Nov 20th 2023

 Reasoning for tomorrow's market

+ve(UP) reasoning:

1. Santa Claus rally
2. Start of a week

-ve (Down)reasoning :

1. S&P500 futures are down- https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ESW00:CME_EMINIS?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiG_qyCwNGCAxVoAjQIHSeOCxcQ3ecFegQICxAb
2. Dow futures are down- https://www.google.com/finance/quote/YMW00:CBOT?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjf6NSnwNGCAxVKOTQIHc0HClkQ3ecFegQIDBAb
3. Oil price is up
4. Geo political
5. Marco view on world economy 

Unknown:

1. US economy leading indicators 

Tomorrow's prediction is that the market will be down as I am leaning on futures direction.

S&P500 prediction Weekly review - Nov13 to Nov17

 Yesterday's prediction was correct and S&P500 was slightly up 0.13%.

Weekly prediction status:

Date	Predictions Correct
11/13/2023	NO
11/14/2023	Yes
11/15/2023	Yes
11/16/2023	NO
11/17/2023	Yes

Weekly S&P500:

It was a good week for S&P500. The index is up by 2.70%.

Market prediction for 11/17/2023

 Today's prediction was wrong. The S&P500 was up .12%.

Let's predict tomorrow's S&P500:

As s&p500 futures and dow futures are up, predicting tomorrow will be +ve day.

Noticed that oil price is going up though.

This is not a financial advice. 

Market prediction for 11/16/2023

 Today's prediction was correct and s&p500 is just positive. 

Even though Oil price is going down, s&p500 and dow futures are down.

I am sticking with futures direction, so my prediction is that market will be down tomorrow 11/16/2023

Market Prediction for 11/15/2023

 Today's prediction was correct and S&P500 is up by 1.91%.

Let's focus on tomorrow's market:

+ve(up) reasoning:

1. S&P futures are up -ES00 | E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch
2. Dow futures are up - DWCF | Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index Overview | MarketWatch
3. Oil price is down - Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com

-ve(down) reasoning:

1.  interest rate is higher for longer.
2. geo-political situation
3. government shutdown.

Unknown: 

1. Core PPI

As per technical, I am predicting that tomorrow's S&P500 will be +ve.

Market prediction for tomorrow 11/14/2023

Today's prediction was wrong. S&P500 is slightly down today.

Reasoning for tomorrow:

+ve reasoning:

1. Today was slightly down,so tomorrow market might try to go up

2. S&P futures is up

- ve reasoning:

1.oil price up

2.dow futures down

Unknown:

CPI coming

Prediction for 11/14/2023 , my prediction for tomorrow's market is up and +ve

Market Prediction for 11/13/2023

+ve(UP) reasoning:

1.  Santa Rally may be
2. Start of the week
3. DOW futures are up - DWCF | Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index Overview | MarketWatch
4. Oil price is down - Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com

-ve(Down) reasoning:

1. S&P500 futures are down - S&P 500 E-Mini | Index Futures | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)
2. geo-political situation.
3. Marco view on market.

Oil price is down, and DOW futures are up today, prediction a +ve market tomorrow (11/13/2023).

THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE. JUST FOR MY ANALSIS.

Week review Nov-6th to Nov 11

 Yesterday's prediction was wrong. The S&P500 was surprisingly up on Friday (11/10/2023).

The week was good for the S&P500 and it was up 1.14%.

My Prediction summary from the week:

Date	Predictions Correct
11/06/2023	Yes
11/07/2023	Yes
11/08/2023	Yes
11/09/2023	Yes
11/10/2023	No

Market S&P500 prediction for 11/10/2023

 The prediction for today was correct and S&P500 was down 0.81%.

Let's reason for tomorrow's market:

+ve(UP) reasoning:

1. S&P futures are up - ES00 | E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch
2. Santa Claus rally
3. Might be oversold today.

-ve(Down) reasoning:

1. DOW futures are down - DWCF | Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index Overview | MarketWatch
2. oil price is slightly up - Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
3. Marco
4. Geo-political

Unknown: 

1. FED chairman speech on IMF
2. Some companies earning - Earnings Calendar | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)

With above the call is tough, but I am sticking with oil price as indicator and prediction tomorrow (11/10/2023) S&P500 will be down.

THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE. JUST FOR MY ANALYSIS.

Market Prediction for 11/09/2023

 Market for 11/08/2023 is UP by 0.1% and prediction is just correct INX 4,382.78 +4.40 +0.10% : S&P 500 - MSN Money 

Let's focus on tomorrow's prediction:

+ve(UP) reasoning:

1. Santa Claus Rally, may be?
2. Dow futures are up - DWCF | Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index Overview | MarketWatch

-ve(DOWN) reasoning:

1. S&P futures are down - S&P 500 E-Mini | Index Futures | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)
2. Interest rate is high.
3. Marco view and geo-political situation.
4. Oil price is slightly up - Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com

Looking at the S&P future and oil price, am predicting that market will be down tomorrow (11/09/2023).

Market prediction for 11/08/2023

 S&P500 was up today, and my prediction was correct - INX 4,378.38 +12.40 +0.28% : S&P 500 - MSN Money

Let's focus on tomorrow's prediction.

+ve(UP) reasoning:

1. Oil price is down - WTI crude - Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
2. Santa Claus rally

-ve(Down) reasoning:

1. S&P futures are slightly down - ES00 | E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch
2. DOW futures also slightly down - Dow Jones 30 Industrial | Index Futures | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)
3. Geo-political and macro view on the world.

Unknown: 

1. FED chairman opening remarks.
2. Some companies earning tomorrow - Company Earnings Calendar - Yahoo Finance

Very hard to predict day when FED chairman speak. But still oil price is going down, I guess that market will be +ve tomorrow (11/08/2023).

THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE. THIS IS JUST FOR MY ANALYSIS.

Market Prediction for 11/07/2023

Today stock market (S&P500) was just +ve as predicted. S&P500 was up 0.18%.

Let's focus on tomorrow.

+ve(up) reasoning:

1. S&P futures are up 0.13% now - S&P 500 E-Mini | Index Futures | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)
2. oil price is down - WTI CRUDE is down by 0.43%.
3. 10-year yield slightly down - US10Y: 4.643% -0.019 (0.00%) (cnbc.com)

-ve(DOWN) reasoning:

1. DOW futures are down - Dow Jones 30 Industrial | Index Futures | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)
2. Geo-political situation

Unknown:

1. Some companies earnings.
2. Consumer credit coming.
3. FED members speech.

With these observations, I am guessing tomorrow (11/07/2023) will be +ve.

Market prediction for 11/06/2023

 Let's predict tomorrow's  S&P500.

+ve(UP) reasoning:

1. S&P futures are up by 1.00% S&P 500 E-Mini | Index Futures | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)
2. Start of the week and a Santa Claus rally would be there.

-ve(Down) reasoning:

1. DOW futures are down a little - Dow Jones 30 Industrial | Index Futures | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)
2. Oil price is up - Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
3. Geo-political situation.

Unknown: 

1. Fed Gov. Cook speaks. Not sure whether he will be hawkish.
2. Some companies are reporting their earnings.

This is tough call. I am planning to stick with S&P futures direction and hopefully start of the week would be nice. So, predicting the market will be +ve tomorrow.

This is not a financial advice. Just for my analysis.

Market S&P500 - this week review

 

Yesterday's prediction was wrong. The S&P500 was actually up by 0.94%

Date	Predictions Correct
10/30/2023	Yes
10/31/2023	No
11/01/2023	No
11/02/2023	Yes
11/03/2023	No

Last week there was 4.85% increase in the S&P500 value

Summary: Seems like market was looking for a Santa Claus rally. Not sure how strong and how real that would be!!

Market prediction(S&P500) for 11/03/2023

 Today's prediction was correct. The S&P500 is up by 1.89%.

Let's try to predict tomorrow's market.

+ve(up) reasoning:

1. FED skipped the rate hike. 
2. Santa Claus rally for year end

-ve(down) reasoning:

1. S&P500 futures down by 0.15% ES00 | E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch
2. DOW futures down by 0.01% YM00 | E-Mini Dow Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch
3. Friday selling
4. APPL down by   3.39%  AAPL 177.57 +3.60 +2.07% : Apple Inc - MSN Money
5. Geo-political situation
6. WTI oil price up by 0.11%

Looking at the reasoning, oil price is up, and futures are down, I am sticking with futures direction. The prediction is that the market will be -ve tomorrow (11/03/2023).

 

THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE.JUST MY ANALYSIS

Market Prediction for 11/02/2023

 Today's market prediction(11/01/2023) was wrong. The S&P500 is up by 1.05%.

Let's focus on tomorrow.

+ve(up) reasoning:

1. S&P500 futures are up by 0.26% ES00 | E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch
2. DOW futures are up by 0.07% YM00 | E-Mini Dow Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch
3. FED skipped the interest rate hike.

-ve(down) reasoning:

1. oil price is up.
2. geo-political situation

Unknown: 

1. initial jobless claims, US productivity reports
2. Earning reports for Apple, Eli Lilly, Starbucks etc.

planning to stick with futures direction and predicting tomorrow will be +ve day (11/02/2023).

This is not a financial advice. Just for my analysis.